DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures Part 2: Scenario Framework for the Pharmaceutical Industry

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• Is resource allocation adequate?- Do we require new leadership to elevate the company?- Are our employees sufficiently skilled?- How can we learn from our past mistakes?- What is our current situation?Once these questions are addressed, the scenario framework can be implemented. For any organization, analyzing its history can serve as a valuable learning tool when applied effectively (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). By examining the history of the pharmaceutical industry, leaders can identify the most and least effective incentives. Understanding past successes and failures can provide insights into why certain incentives performed better than others. Acknowledging history is essential for illustrating a company’s trajectory and measuring its success (Tighe, 2019).

Is the company experiencing growth or decline? Has it achieved the objectives set a decade ago? Integrating information from the defined scope, asking the right questions, and leveraging past experiences will inform the planning process for setting decade goals. Comprehensive planning is crucial for preparing for the future, whether that involves enhancing current practices, implementing significant changes, or maintaining the status quo. Given the rapid evolution of the pharmaceutical industry, Day & Schoemaker’s framework is highly recommended.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

The complexities of the fast-evolving pharmaceutical industry further support this recommendation. By identifying the gaps between the current state and the desired state of generic pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers, leaders can begin to strategize on how to address these discrepancies in response to uncertainties. Research indicates that revenue in the Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturing industry has declined over the past five years (Kennedy, 2021). In addition to falling revenues, the generic industry faces several other challenges (Stockman, 2021). Some of these issues include the fact that “Generic drugs significantly contribute to the rapid rise in overall drug costs” (Kennedy, 2021, para. 7). Additionally, many organizations within the pharmaceutical sector encounter challenges such as shifts in pricing structures, reduced patent protections, increased litigation, and more. For instance, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain is currently grappling with shortages, escalating costs, and inconsistent access to essential medications, largely due to a heavy reliance on a limited number of manufacturers to fulfill demand (Kennedy, 2021). While existing laws and regulations govern the pharmaceutical industry, some companies could benefit from enhanced awareness regarding how to prepare for uncertainties.

Furthermore, utilizing road maps in the pharmaceutical industry can assist in identifying and organizing uncertainties. Road maps illustrate the supply chain process and highlight specific areas that require improvement. Industry experts note that there is a persistent issue with shortages within the supply chain (Kennedy, 2021). The lack of alternative manufacturers to fill gaps when supplies dwindle exacerbates these shortages. Given this unfortunate situation, the pressing question is: what actions can leaders take now to prevent future shortages?

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

By analyzing historical data, leaders can examine the fluctuations in the supply chain and develop road maps to identify more effective solutions to supply chain challenges (Stockman, 2021). Understanding the supply chain process is crucial for learning how to respond to potential crises and address the “what ifs.” Despite advancements in technology, the pharmaceutical industry continues to face persistent challenges. The supply chain remains volatile, particularly during crises (Kennedy, 2021). Some companies even outsource their production needs, which can create complications when supply chains do not meet expected demands, necessitating last-minute adjustments. Road maps are essential for this industry, as they can address ongoing supply chain issues and highlight specific areas for improvement that leaders should consider.

In conclusion, while a scenario framework is not a definitive solution, it can effectively guide a company through uncertainties when applied correctly. By contemplating future possibilities, a company can better position itself to confront upcoming challenges. For the pharmaceutical industry, implementing a scenario planning framework to project the next decade could potentially help resolve the supply chain issues many companies face. Additionally, road mapping and learning from past experiences can keep organizations prepared for the future. Therefore, it is suggested that Day & Schoemaker’s framework is the most suitable for pla